The most useful move for African equity investors this week did not come from oil, even with Brent still high at $100.69 a barrel, but from agriculture. Wheat fell 3.2% to $596.75, while cocoa rose 2.0% to $3,367 and coffee added 0.5% to 299.9. Across African stock markets today, that mix is creating a clear split: potential cost relief for food importers and processors, but firmer revenue support for producers and exporters tied to West and East African agriculture.
Market context: currencies, oil and agricultural pricing
The week’s backdrop is defined by a macro contradiction. On one side, Brent dropped 14.9% on the day and 10.6% on the week, based on the data provided, which in theory eases pressure on freight, fertilizer and energy costs across food supply chains. On the other, African currencies moved in different directions, changing the real local-currency impact of imported commodities. USD/MAD rose 2.27% to 9.3201, USD/KES gained 0.55% to 130.0, while USD/TND fell 1.47% to 2.902, USD/EGP fell 1.74% to 53.47 and USD/NGN slipped 0.55% to 1,377.42.
That divergence matters because a wheat decline in dollars does not translate evenly across exchanges. In Tunisia, the softer dollar against the dinar amplifies the benefit of lower grain prices for importers and food-and-beverage groups such as SFBT, although the timing will depend on procurement contracts and inventory hedges. In Morocco, by contrast, the stronger dollar and euro against the dirham offset part of the benefit from imported agricultural commodities. That is why African market recap pieces that focus only on headline commodity prices often miss the actual earnings transmission.
Key figures
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