Title: Iran Oil Shock Splits African Markets: Casablanca Slumps (-9.28% YTD) vs BRVM Resilience (+1.7%)
The oil shock triggered by the military escalation in the Middle East has propelled Brent to $92.69 per barrel (+19.2% weekly, +8.5% Friday), creating a spectacular divergence between the three major stock markets in North and West Africa. While the Casablanca Stock Exchange records a negative annual performance of -9.28% (MASI at 17,097.54 points), the BRVM shows remarkable resilience at +1.7% YTD (composite at 411.44 points), illustrating distinct macroeconomic sensitivities in the face of the global energy crisis.
Market Context: Three Regimes, Three Trajectories
The week of March 2 to 7, 2026, revealed an unprecedented fragmentation of market dynamics. In Casablanca, the MASI 20, the flagship index of large capitalizations, deepened its decline to -12.56% YTD (1,298.99 points), a victim of Morocco's high energy dependence and the tourism sector's exposure to geopolitical risks. However, trading volume showed signs of life on Thursday with a technical rebound of +4.18% in the MASI, hailed by Medias24 as a "beautiful recovery," before Friday's session brought the index back into the red (-1.46%).
On the other side of the Sahara, the BRVM Composite Total Return closed at 158.44 points (+0.09% Friday), driven by a booming industrial sector (+4.69% session, sector at 208.79 points) that compensates for the drop in energy (-2.01%). The BRVM-30, a benchmark for large West African stocks, shows an annual gain of +1.97%, while the Prestige segment progresses by +1.47% YTD to 162.8 points. In Tunis, the TUNINDEX ended the week at 14,951.24 points (-0.23% Friday), displaying contained volatility despite international tensions.
Key Figures
- Brent: (+19.2% weekly, +8.5% daily)