The biggest market shock this week did not come from Brent alone at $101.78 a barrel, up 8.2% on the day and 14.1% over the week. It came from the way that commodity move filtered through African currencies, changing how investors should read equity returns in Lagos, Johannesburg, Cairo, Casablanca, Abidjan, Tunis and Nairobi.
When oil moves back above $100, the impact is never uniform across the continent. Net importers face a heavier energy bill and renewed FX pressure, while hydrocarbon and mining exporters can gain support through hard-currency revenues. This week, the contrast was especially sharp between USD/NGN at 1,365.99, down 1.01%, USD/ZAR at 16.82, up 2.19%, and USD/EGP at 51.25, up 0.51%.
Key figures
- Brent: $101.78/bbl, up 8.2% on the day and 14.1% on the week
- USD/ZAR: 16.82, implying a 2.19% rand depreciation
- USD/NGN: 1,365.99, implying a 1.01% naira appreciation
- USD/EGP: 51.25, up 0.51%
- EUR/XOF: 655.957, the fixed peg that dampens dollar volatility