The NSE 25 rose 0.82% on Thursday, October 1, 2026, even as 26 of 56 stocks fell. Earnings from Safaricom, NSE Plc and TotalEnergies Marketing Kenya dominated trading against a backdrop of Brent at $101.15 and USD/KES at 129.57.
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Kenyan equities closed higher on Thursday, October 1, 2026, but the headline gain concealed a highly selective session: the NSE 25 rose 0.82% to 2,792.78 points even as 26 stocks fell, against 18 gainers and 12 unchanged. That divergence reflected a sharp rotation into earnings-driven names at a time when Brent crude stood at $101.15 a barrel and USD/KES climbed to 129.57, two variables that matter directly for margins across fuel marketers, importers and companies carrying foreign-currency costs.
The session was dominated by a flood of corporate releases. Safaricom Plc, Nairobi Securities Exchange Plc, Nation Media Group, Express Kenya, Car & General Kenya and TotalEnergies Marketing Kenya all posted results on October 1, according to official exchange announcements. That concentration of earnings reshaped flows across the Kenya stock market, with investors favouring liquid large caps while punishing several smaller counters once the numbers hit the tape.
- Most active counters: Equity Group KES 133.9 million, Safaricom KES 121.9 million
Market context: index strength masked weak breadth
The first takeaway from the day was the gap between index performance and underlying breadth. With 56 listed counters captured in the day’s statistics, the fact that about 46% of stocks declined shows the rise in the NSE 25 was driven by a handful of heavyweights rather than a broad-based rally. That is a familiar pattern on the Nairobi stock exchange today when investors rapidly reprice earnings releases, especially in a more fragile currency environment.
Turnover data confirmed that concentration. Safaricom Plc, whose shares rose 1.4% to KES 36.5, traded KES 121.9 million, while Equity Group Holdings added 1.4% to KES 105.5 on KES 133.9 million of value traded. KCB Group, by contrast, slipped 1.1% to KES 91.5 on KES 26.2 million. That pecking order matters because Safaricom often accounts for more than 40% of benchmark weightings depending on the index methodology, meaning a modest 1.4% move can support the broader market even when 26 stocks are in the red.
Macro conditions also mattered. Brent’s 2.3% daily decline came after another volatile week in global energy markets, with international headlines pointing to tighter fuel exports from China and stalled US-Iran talks. For Kenya, a net importer of petroleum products, oil at around $101 remains elevated in absolute terms even after the day’s pullback. At the same time, the 0.65% rise in USD/KES increases the local-currency cost of fuel, imported inputs and dollar-linked obligations, which can squeeze margins for distributors, industrials and transport-linked businesses.
Earnings focus: Safaricom and NSE Plc drew the market’s eye
The most consequential release for the exchange was Safaricom Plc, which published audited results for the year ended March 31, 2026. The detailed figures were not included in the market feed provided here, but the share-price reaction — up 1.4% on KES 121.9 million of turnover — suggests the market read the release positively. That matters because Safaricom is not just a telecom stock: it is also a proxy for mobile money through M-Pesa, household consumption and regional expansion, especially in Ethiopia. When Safaricom rises 1.4%, the index impact is mechanically larger than that of many small caps falling 3% to 9%.
Nairobi Securities Exchange Plc delivered a more mixed message. Its shares fell 1.6% to KES 30.0 after unaudited financial statements for the six months ended June 30, 2026, despite a busy institutional news flow that included the appointment of a non-executive director, the launch of a Banking Sector Index, the admission of Fintrust Securities as an authorised securities dealer in fixed income, and the listing of the Satrix MSCI World Feeder ETF. The stock’s decline despite multiple strategic announcements suggests investors focused on near-term earnings quality rather than the longer-term promise of revenue diversification. That extends a debate already raised in Bourse de Nairobi — NSE +3,3% malgré des résultats semestriels mitigés, le NSE 25 gagne 0,82%, where the central question was whether product innovation can translate into tangible profit growth.
That distinction is important for retail investors tracking NSE share prices every day. A world-equity feeder ETF and a new banking index improve market depth and product breadth, but the financial payoff is not immediate. Trading, listing and data revenues still depend on actual activity, and today’s session again showed heavy concentration in five names — Equity, Safaricom, KCB, Co-op Bank and KenGen — rather than a broad turnover uplift across the board.
TotalEnergies Marketing Kenya, Express Kenya and Nation Media reshape stock selection
Even though TotalEnergies Marketing Kenya rose 3.5% to KES 47.7, it cannot be the lead angle of this article. Still, its audited results for the year ended December 31, 2025 are impossible to ignore because they landed precisely as the market reassesses how exposed Kenya’s oil-marketing sector is to crude volatility. With Brent at $101.15, the key issue is not only revenue growth but also distribution margins: when international fuel prices rise and then retreat quickly, inventory can be revalued sharply from one reporting period to the next. According to the editorial brief, the focus is on revenue growth and margin trends, which is exactly where investors should look in a market where the energy import bill is largely dollar-denominated.
The move in USD/KES to 129.57 complicates that picture further. Even if a lower Brent price offers some relief on procurement costs, a weaker shilling can offset part of that benefit. For investors, that means a Kenyan fuel marketer can post healthy top-line momentum without necessarily converting it into margin expansion. That is the kind of reading this earnings season demands on the NSE Kenya today: look beyond sales growth and assess the combined effect of crude, FX and logistics costs.
Other earnings releases were met more harshly. Nation Media Group lost 1.3% to KES 15.4 after audited 2025 results, underlining continued caution around traditional media in a fragmented and increasingly digital advertising market. Express Kenya dropped 7.5% to KES 7.2, one of the day’s steepest declines, after its 2025 annual numbers. Car & General Kenya also released results and fell 1.9% to KES 286.25. The message from the market was clear: in thinner segments of the exchange, disappointment is punished quickly when earnings do not justify valuations or fail to provide an immediate operating catalyst.
Supporting stories: small-cap dispersion, global ETF launch and defensive flows
Away from the main earnings stories, several moves stood out. Nairobi Business Ventures jumped 7.1% to KES 1.35, Flame Tree Group gained 5.0% to KES 2.1, and BK Group rose 5.0% to KES 63.0. On the downside, ScanGroup slumped 9.5% to KES 1.9, Umeme fell 6.2% to KES 6.0, and BOC Kenya dropped 4.4% to KES 183.5. That spread — from +7.1% to -9.5% — points to a market that is highly selective, with money moving quickly between domestic stories, regional names and defensive holdings.
