Nairobi Securities Exchange — Safaricom FY2026 Lands as NSE 25 Jumps 26.23% but Stock Slips
Safaricom released its audited FY2026 results in a session where the NSE 25 surged 26.23%. Yet the stock slipped 0.3% on KES 25.98 million traded, showing the market is weighing outlook as much as headline earnings.
|6 min read
Kenya’s market delivered an unusual split on Monday, 13 July 2026: Safaricom Plc released its audited results for the year ended 31 March 2026, while the NSE 25 surged 26.23% to 3,801.22. Yet the telecom heavyweight slipped 0.3%, with KES 25.98 million in traded value, suggesting investors were parsing growth quality, M-Pesa momentum and Ethiopia execution rather than simply rewarding the headline release.
That divergence matters more in Nairobi than in many frontier markets because Safaricom carries outsized influence on sentiment and index construction. On the Kenya stock market, even a modest move in Safaricom can shape the tone for the broader board, especially when banks and defensive names are also absorbing a large share of turnover.
Key figures
- NSE 25: +26.23% to 3,801.22
- Safaricom: -0.3%, traded value KES 25.98 million
The headline move in the NSE Kenya today was dramatic, but the underlying tape was more mixed. Market breadth came in at 26 stocks up, 24 down and 7 unchanged out of 57 counters, indicating the jump in the benchmark was likely driven by heavyweight components and technical positioning rather than a broad-based surge across the exchange.
Top gainers were led by Standard Group up 9.0% to KES 6.28, Kapchorua Tea up 6.2% to KES 340.0, and Unga Group up 5.3% to KES 28.7. On the losing side, TPS Eastern Africa Serena fell 5.0% to KES 15.1, Uchumi Supermarket dropped 4.5% to KES 1.68, and Shri Krishana Overseas lost 4.0% to KES 9.2 after releasing its 2025 financial statements.
Turnover patterns show where institutional attention sat. KCB Group led traded value at KES 57.14 million, followed by Safaricom at KES 25.98 million, Diamond Trust Bank Kenya at KES 19.49 million, Standard Chartered Kenya at KES 14.57 million, and Equity Group Holdings at KES 13.91 million. That concentration in financials was notable on the same day the exchange announced the launch of a Banking Sector Index, a move that could sharpen sector benchmarking and eventually deepen product development around bank stocks.
Macro also mattered. The US dollar strengthened 0.73% against the shilling to 129.19, a relevant move for Kenyan corporates with imported inputs, dollar debt or foreign capex commitments. At the same time, Brent crude rose 3.9% to $78.95 a barrel on the day. For Kenya, a net fuel importer, higher oil prices can lift nominal revenues for marketers but also raise transport, power and consumer cost pressures. That combination tends to make investors more selective around margin-sensitive names.
Safaricom earnings 2026: why the stock fell despite the event
Safaricom’s audited FY2026 release was the central corporate event of the session. Even without the full line-by-line earnings detail in the market summary, the immediate market reaction was informative: the stock fell 0.3% on a day when the benchmark index jumped 26.23%. In practical terms, that points to a market that had already priced in part of the good news, or one that wanted stronger signals on forward growth drivers before bidding the stock higher.
In Nairobi, Safaricom is never assessed on legacy voice revenue alone. Investors typically value the group across at least three engines: mobile data growth, M-Pesa monetisation, and the Ethiopia expansion path. For retail readers checking the safaricom share price today, the key question is not simply whether profit improved in the year to March 2026, but whether the company showed it can protect margins while funding growth in a tougher currency environment.
The USD/KES at 129.19 is central to that discussion. A weaker shilling can raise the cost of network equipment, technology contracts and parts of capital expenditure that are dollar-linked. Against that, M-Pesa remains a high-cash-generation domestic franchise that can cushion some of the pressure. Monday’s price action suggests the market was balancing those two realities: acknowledging Safaricom’s structural strength, while hesitating to re-rate the stock without clearer visibility on the next leg of earnings expansion.
Ethiopia remains the other major swing factor. For several reporting periods, the market has treated Safaricom’s regional push as both a strategic opportunity and a source of start-up losses. If FY2026 results show operational progress, investors will still want evidence on the pace at which the business can narrow losses or begin contributing meaningfully to consolidated revenue. Across African telecom markets, expansion stories increasingly need hard commercial proof, especially when global monetary conditions and local currencies remain under pressure.
Banks, oil-linked names and exchange reforms shaped the rest of the session
The session was not only about Safaricom. Financials absorbed the heaviest turnover, though price performance was mixed. KCB fell 2.1% to KES 81.0, Equity added 0.3%, DTB slipped 0.8%, and Standard Chartered Kenya lost 0.9%. That dispersion matters because it shows investors were not buying the banking complex as a single macro trade, even with the new sector index launch.
The new Banking Sector Index is strategically important for the Nairobi bourse. It gives fund managers, analysts and retail investors a cleaner way to compare lenders on profitability, asset quality and valuation. For readers tracking the Equity Bank share price or the KCB share price, that means relative performance inside the sector may become more visible, particularly as both groups remain regional expansion stories spanning Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and the DRC.
Among other earnings-linked movers, TotalEnergies Marketing Kenya fell 2.2% to KES 44.0 after releasing audited 2025 results. That decline came even as Brent rose 3.9% on the day. The connection is important: higher oil prices can boost top-line fuel sales in nominal terms, but they do not automatically improve profitability if regulated pricing, inventory financing costs and softer end-demand compress margins. Car & General Kenya also slipped 1.0% to KES 119.0 after its results, while Express Kenya gained 2.0% to KES 7.0.
The exchange itself added another layer to the day’s narrative. The NSE announced the admission of Fintrust Securities as an Authorized Securities Dealer in fixed income, appointed Sterling Capital as a market maker in the NEXT derivatives market, and said investors would soon gain access to global markets through a Satrix MSCI World Feeder ETF listing. Those steps matter because they broaden product access at a time when local investors are increasingly balancing domestic equity exposure with currency and diversification concerns.
What to watch next on the Nairobi stock exchange today
The next phase of the Nairobi stock exchange today story will hinge on three data points. First, investors will parse the full Safaricom FY2026 detail: service revenue mix, M-Pesa growth, capex intensity and Ethiopia’s contribution. Second, the market will watch whether the shilling at 129.19 per dollar feeds into more cautious positioning in import-dependent and foreign-currency-exposed names. Third, Brent at $78.95 will remain relevant for energy marketers, transport operators and consumer-facing businesses.
